Fun fact: Cooks is younger than Cooper Kupp.
It’s why I drafted Brock so high in 2016. Worked out great for me.
$80 million extension...Holy crap. I think I might take a shot on him in the 4th/5th round. Follow the money right?
Love this for both Cooks and the Rams long term.
Monday Draft Guide Giveaway!FTA Draft Guide 2018
Features of our draft guide:
Customize projections for your league settings
VBD Rankings updated daily
Supports auction drafts
First down projections (NEW)
Early registration /sub/ftaffl : Now filling League #13 - Bubble Screen
Interested and upvoted. Good luck to all
Interested, Upvoted and cant wait to defend my FTA league title this year, love the slow live draft with reasoning during each pick.
Interested and upvoted!
Upvoted & Interested!
Good night sweet prince, thank you for the championship you help me win two years ago.
Greatest football player of all time
I’ll start Henry and Murray will still post 175 with 2 Tds
Until someone tears their ACL in training camp. Jay Cutler was "retired" last year too.
Here's a Spreadsheet with 10 Years of Fantasy Data
This spreadsheet contains fantasy relevant statistical data for all players from 2008-2017 (also includes PPR and Standard fantasy points). I got the data from Pro-Football-Reference and compiled it into a single document so I could do some analysis of my own. Hopefully this will help anyone who is trying to do statistical analysis before the season starts. Cheers!
Edit: Here’s a download link instead of the browser view. Thanks /u/podnito
Great. Good. Run the numbers and give me an updated ADP for a 10 man league with .5 ppr scoring and 3 WRs.
I'll expect to see the list on my desk in the morning.
Holy. Shit. This is exactly what I need to run my regression and SD models, but with none of the work. I'll be sure to post any additional work I add to it here if people are interested in those things!
Duuuudeeee...this is solid.
Can run some pivots on here. Run some regression.
You can go nuts on this. I can't wait to do some totally over the top and unnecessary analysis with this too!
Thanks for sharing.
Where’s the rundown Jim.
If this is true. He’s done.
McCoy just pulled a Ray Rice, Adrian Peterson, Mike Vick combo with a side of fries
DeMarco Murray just found a job
If he inflicted those injuries he'll be arrested and kicked out of the NFL. Thats not even to mention the other allegations made in the post
EDIT: McCoy's response: For the record, the totally baseless and offensive claims made against me today on social media are completely false. Further more, I have not had any direct contact with any of the people involved in months.
Monday Draft Guide Giveaway!
The fifty winners of the 2018 FTA Draft Guide have been selected!
The /sub/ftaffl leagues began accepting entries today! Now in our fifth season sponsored by 4for4 and ClickyDraft.
Interested. Upvoted. Excited.
Many interest. Much upvote.
Upvoted and interested
Upvoted and interested!
BeerSheets 2018-07-08 (Break Stuff Edition)
THIS IS A TEST OF A NEW SYSTEM. PLEASE ENTHUSIASTICALLY BREAK IT!
What is this?
These are cheat sheets intended to help players in both snake draft and auction drafts. It uses a combination of value based drafting combined with a few of my own calculations to establish player value, positional scarcity, auction value, and tiers.
How do I get my sheet?
Click on the helpful link at the top of the post. It will direct you to a form that you can fill out. If your sheet is one of the standard formats it will automatically link to it, otherwise a request for a custom sheet will automatically be generated. Custom sheets are uploaded at least a week before your draft, which is why that field is included.
The standard scoring format is 0.04 points per yard for passing, 0.1 points per yard for running and receiving, 4 points per passing TD, 6 points per rushing and receiving TD, and -2 points per interception.
What are the calculations based on?
I use as many projections as I can find to establish a range of projected values for each player. I use a Value Based Drafting approach to calculate the player value for each projection, and then average those values to get a final number. The standard deviation of those value projections are used to determine tiers. A key component of value based drafting is establishing the baseline player, which I set based on this article. Auction values are calculated using this method.
What's new this year?
Internally I’ve added some new projections, purged a few others that stop doing it, and cleaned up how certain values are calculated so as to make the system more efficient.
One thing you will see is the addition of tiers from Boris Chen (/u/Prayes). I have always been a fan of his work and I am excited to see it incorporated. Tiers provide excellent information about the distribution of player rankings, and are more robust than a single number.
This year I have partnered with my friends who run Football Absurdity to help with making it easier to access the sheets and help avoid the crushing deluge of traffic. Football Absurdity is a football comedy website. They enjoy breaking down the happenings of the NFL in a fun, yet informative way. They have jokes. They have stats. They have useful fantasy football information.
What do the columns mean?
Player Name: The name of the player.
TM/BW: The player's team and bye week.
RNK: The player's Expert Consensus Ranking based on FantasyPros, formatted in a "round.pick" format so that you can also use it to judge ADP (auction sheets do not have this formatting). In general ADP and ranking is closely correlated, and players with no formatting are taken in the same round as their ranking. Values that are struck through mean the ADP is more than a round before the rank. Values that are underlined mean the ADP is more than a round after the rank; two underlines means two or more. These ADP predictions do not apply to 2QB leagues!
T: Ranking tiers from Boris Chen (/u/Prayes) site at BorisChen.co.
#/#/P: This is how the player did last year for a given position each week. The first two numbers represent a weekly rank in a position (0.5 means the top 50% of a position, typically used for 1 position slots such as QB and TE). P stands for played; the number of weeks the player actually played assuming a 16 week season. For example a player's column reads 6/10/13. That means that in 2015 using that scoring and roster setting he was a RB1 a total of 6 times, equal to or better than a RB2 a total of 10 times (including the RB1 weeks), and played a total of 13 games.
VAL: Player value. The average value of multiple projections relative to a baseline player (numbers shown in the title bar).
PS: Positional Scarcity. The percentage of player value remaining in that position once that player (and all players above him) are drafted. This is the means by which you can determine the opportunity cost of selecting one position over another.
$: Auction sheets only. This is a player's auction value based on this method.
$DV: Auction sheets only. This is the standard deviation of a player's auction value, which is useful for determining the range of what a player "should" cost based on the above method.
What are tiers?
Tiers are groups of players whose projections overlap as a result of the mean and standard deviation of their particular data set. Projections are notoriously unreliable (the top experts are lucky to be right 60% of the time), so players who are stacked within the same tier should be considered roughly comparable in value.
Will you share the original data file?
Can you do a sheet for my 13 player 2QB/1RB/3WR/2FLX/TE/DST/2PK league with 0.314 PPR and 9 PPTD?
Fill out the form at the top of the post to request a custom sheet. I will try to get it uploaded a week before your draft.
This is awesome! These sheets help me win my league last year, and you deserve a tip! How can I throw money at you?
Previously I ran Fantasy Football charity league, and over the last five years the league has raised $14,536. A significant portion of these donations come through generous people like you making donations as a way of saying thanks for BeerSheets. This year my workload has forced me to cut down on a lot, so instead of the charity league I am raising funds for a high school robotics program that I mentor. Your dollars will directly help inspire students to become scientists and engineers and also help them build a 160 pound robot.
Will you do IDP?
Eventually. It requires a lot of work, but it's on my to-do list. The problem with IDP is that there aren't a lot of projections and the tiers become massive.
Will you do Dynasty?
This method doesn't work for dynasty, as the projections are only for one year.
What's the best way to use this? Which categories should I pay attention to the most?
The real meat of the sheet is value and positional scarcity. What I like to do is start off with value and see which players are available within each position that have similar value. I look at tier to get a sense of how many players are "clumped" together and see if I can't get value later on. It should be noted that the tiers are not absolute; comparing the last player of one tier to the first player of the tier below him is perfectly reasonable.
Positional scarcity shows how much value is remaining in each position after a player is taken. In general you want the player with the lower PS, because there's less value remaining once that player is gone. This will also give you a sense of just how much value an individual player takes from the "pool" of points for each skill.
Rankings are a great way to determine when a player should be drafted, when that player is actually being drafted, and also differentiating between players in a tier. They're a good way to pick between players who share a tier once I've decided which skill position I want to draft. It should be noted that rankings are limited to contemporary scoring and rosters; the more nonstandard your league the less useful the rankings may be.
The historical numbers are helpful for figuring out how a player did last year, and whether or not you're looking at a player with a high floor or a low ceiling. Obviously this is a purely historical perspective, so drafters should be wary of players who might have changed teams or who have either gained or lost competition.
Who else should I check out?/u/CanadianSandGoggles has an awesome drafting tool. /u/elboberto's auction spreadsheet is fantastic. /u/daruuk has an wonder "Draft Slayer" sheet that interfaces with my sheets.
The new request feature is cool, but I miss being able to just find a rankings sheet based on league style without having to do the form. I know my league is a little bit different than standard, but using one of the standard forms is usually close enough. Either way, appreciate what you do.
Also I am posting from my phone for the next week so if I don't respond immediately that's why.
I think linking the most popular leagues (5 tops) would be very helpful to streamlining this process.
We're working on that.
Yeah, they can't pay 2 QBs at 25 mil/year to be on the same roster.
You obviously don't know Dan Snyder
If they do tag him, I hope he intentionally fucks up Washington's trade attempts, outplays Smith, and forces them to eat both contracts.
What do you mean discuss the pros? There's literally no way the Redskins benefit by doing this to him. It's the definition of petty.
Is Dez Bryant Done In Dallas?
RotoExperts were discussing it this morning.
He played in all 16 games and finished the season with only 838 yards, 6 TDs. His last 1,000 yard receiving season was 2014. He's 29 years old.
Cutting him could save the Cowboys ~$16 million. I don't think they'll go that route, just saying it is an option.
For FANTASY purposes, where would you draft him next year?
Dez is only 29? Man I thought he was older the way he’s been playing
Frank Gore is still going strong despite turning 51 this year
He's only 51?
As a Cowboys fan i really wish we would, but we aren’t going to. I genuinely think this offense with Dak and Zeke is better off without him. Dak feels as if he needs to force him the ball so that he won’t go and open his mouth about it. If you remember Dak’s rookie season when dez was sidelined for ~10 games with his foot injury, we won every single game that he had missed. Dak was doing just fine slinging it to Brice butler and Beasley.
Running Back Busts from 2017
Since the fantasy season is over I figured it probably time to reflect on last seasons fantasy results. So I’ve listed my 5 biggest fantasy football running backs from 2017. Also added comments on their 2018 draft outlooks. Let me know who you thought was a running back bust this year and why.5 Joe Mixon (CIN)
Many might not consider Mixon a bust, but he just barely made this list. There’s no doubt this player is talented and has a bright future in the NFL. The primary issue was he fell victim to his own head coach, Marvin Lewis. Lewis is notorious for not playing rookies, even if the rookie is the clear better player like in Mixons case. He’s how Mixon numbers looked this year:
Overall ADP: #35 (STD), #39 (PPR) RB ADP: #18 (STD), #22 (PPR)
Finished 2017: Overall - #125 (STD), #133(PPR) / RB - #32 (STD), #34 (PPR)
RBs that finished better than him in STD leagues: Derrick Henry, Buck Allen, Bilal Powell
RBs that finished better than him in PPR leagues: James White, Gio Bernard, Tarik Cohen
2017 Stats (not including week 17): 13 games played. Averaged: 12 rushes/41 yards & 2 rec/22 yards. Scored 4 rushing TDs
Going into the 2018 fantasy season, Marvin Lewis shouldn’t be a concern to Mixons success. Mixon is the clear starting running back for the Bengals. The big thing to monitor is the offensive line of the Bengals. Clearly one of the worst O-lines in the league as Mixon was often dodging defenders behind the line scrimmage. Any changes to the offensive line should be a boost to Mixons success.4 Isaiah Crowell (CLE)
Often a mobile QB can be a nice addition for a running back since QB read options can create great running lanes for running backs. The one caveat is the team needs to have to ball to make these effective. The Browns were 30th in the NFL in time of possession and lead the lead in turnovers (41). No surprise with how the Browns performed this year. However, Crowell was projected to still be fantasy relevant because of potential goal line carries. But this is where Crowell fell victim to Kizer. In 2017, inside the 10 yard line, Crowell received 12 carries all year resulting in 1 TD, while Kizer had 9 attempts resulting in 5 TDs. Here’s how Crowell’s numbers looked in 2017:
Overall ADP: #28 (STD), #30 (PPR) RB ADP: #14 (STD), #14 (PPR)
Finished 2017: Overall - #106 (STD), #117 (PPR) / RB - #26 (STD), #27 (PPR)
RBs that finished better than him in STD: Buck Allen, Tevin Coleman
RBs that finished better than him in PPR: Frank Gore, Tevin Coleman
2017 Stats (not including week 17): 15 games; Averaged 13 rushes/55 yards & 2 rec/12 yard Scored 2 rushing TDs
Crowell becomes an unrestricted free agent (UFA) in 2018. With the Browns having the 1st and 4th overall pick in the 2018 draft, there’s a strong possibility the Browns move on from Crowell or rather, Crowell moves on from the Browns. Before knowing where he lands in 2018 it’s tough to say where his fantasy value will be for next year.3 Mike Gillislee (NE)
Many expected, including myself, to see Gillislee fill the fantastic role that LeGarette Blount had for the Patriots in 2016. Blount finished 2016 rushing for over 1000 yards and scoring 18 TDs. The season started off great for Gillese with three TDs in week 1, but went all downhill from there. Here’s his numbers for 2017:
Overall ADP: #55 (STD), #63 (PPR) RB ADP: #25 (STD), #26 (PPR)
Finished 2017: Overall - #205 (STD), #261 (PPR) / RB - #52 (STD), #66 (PPR)
RBs that finished better than him in STD: Just about everyone RBs that finished better than him in PPR: Just about everyone
2017: 9 games averaging 12 rushes/43yards. Scored 5 rushing TDs. Was a healthy scratch for weeks 9-15.
No telling what Gillislee’s draft value will be next year. Both his teammates Rex Burkhead and Dion Lewis are free agents in 2018, and both of them earned themselves a new contract with the Patriots, in my opinion. Which leaves Gillislee as the odd man out.2 Demarco Murray (TEN)
Coming off a fantastic 2016 where he rushed for 1287 yards and 12 touchdowns, he was high on everybody’s draft boards. Myself included. He was shell of his 2016 self this year as he battled injuries and playing time with Derrick Henry. He finished 2017 with the following stats:
Overall ADP: #10 (STD), #13 (PPR) / RB ADP: #6 (STD), #7 (PPR)
Finished 2017: Overall - #80 (STD), #70 (PPR) / RB: #19 (STD), #17 (PPR)
RBs that finished better than him in STD: Tevin Coleman, Frank Gore, CJ Anderson, Zeke
RBs that finished better than him in PPR: Jerick McKinnon, Lamar Miller, Duke Johnson, Carlos Hyde, Zeke
2017: 15 games avg. 12 rushes/44 yards & 3 rec/18 yards. Scored 7 total TDs
Murray just finished up his 2nd year of his four year contract with the Titans, but Henry looks like the Titans future running back. Murray looked aged this year and it appears that he’s past his prime, so I expect him to plummet in 2018 drafts.1 Jay Ajayi (MIA/PHI)
This guy comes as no surprise. After a phenomenal 2016 season where he finished as the RB10 (STD) and RB13(PPR), Jay Ajayi was poised for a big 2017 season. A big season that never happened as he’s this years biggest running back bust. Here’s how his 2017 season went:
Overall ADP: #12 (STD), #14 (PPR) RB ADP: #7 (STD), #8 (PPR)
Finished 2017: Overall - #112(STD), #130 (PPR) / RB - #28 (STD), #31 (PPR)
RBs that finished better than him in STD: Buck Allen, Bilal Powell
RBs that finished better than him in PPR: Tarik Cohen, Gio Bernard
2017: 14 games avg. 15 rushes/62 yards & 2 rec/11 yards. Scored 1 rushing TD and 1 receiving TD
Ajayi is under contract with the Eagles for another year. Playing for the Eagles, he doesn’t see nearly as much volume as his days in Miami. The Eagles are cycling their RBs similar to the Patriots which will cause Ajayi’s value to drop to the 3rd round on come next years drafts.
Doug Martin deserves a honarable mention. Never. Again.
His first week back against the patriots I was yelling at all my league mates while we were watching that game like, “WHATS UP BITCHES I KNEW HE’D KILL IT”
Yeah they made fun of me for the rest of the season
Tfw you drafted 4 out the 5 players on this list
Why no Abdullah?