Good luck, chuckle fucks.
Florida is already considered purple, going blue the last 2 out of the 3 Presidential elections. Trump won by less than 120,000 votes. And shitface Rick Scott won the Gov in 2010 and 2014 by less than 65,000 votes.
But since Hurricane Irma, between 300,000 - 400,000 Puerto Ricans have moved to the state. With more to folllow. Now couple this with the remarks/statements in the last 12 months, "all Haitians have aids", "shithole countries", the attacks on DACA individuals, etc. Republicans are terrified that these actions will come back to hurt them in future elections.
I hope republicans do to Florida what they did to California in the 90's. Be so fucking horrendous and malicious towards minorities that the state flips blue permanently.
Fuck the GOP.
The thing about gerrymandering is that you try to win your districts by the thinnest "safe" margin possible. (Consequently, you lose a few districts by the most obscene overblown margins you can manage, "wasting" most of the votes for the other party to losses in most districts and overkill wins in a few.) That's how North Carolina is 41% D / 32% R but their districts are 3 D / 10 R. (The map drawer in NC commented to the effect of "I'd have drawn it 2 and 11 if I could have pulled it off mathematically." His comment was used against him in court.)
But if you set everything up for 4-point wins and national opinion of your party drops 10 points? You lose everywhere. When gerrymandering fails, it's a cascading collapse.
That part's almost worth looking forward to.
I'd imagine that FL will ultimately bare the most brunt of the blue wave this year. In between the non-stop xenophobia coming from Trump's camp and the hundreds of thousands of Puerto Ricans that moved there due to Maria's mismanagement, I'd imagine that FL's demographics are going to be very bad news for the GOP.
And Ajit Pai. Don’t forget him.
i wonder how much effect it will have in the house given how heavily gerrymandered florida is.
hopefully the republicans lose control of a substantial number of house seats and the senate.
I've lived in Florida for over 15 years now and it still ceases to amaze me in how it's a tale of 2 states.
Over the course of my 15+ years I've lived in the greater Orlando or greater Tampa area and for every GOP friend of mine I would easily have 3 democratic/independent friend.
But leave the greater area of any major city? I would be viewed as an outcast simply because I'm a mestizo. Call me a pessimist but until Florida becomes decidedly blue, I just can't believe any article that claims the GOP is rushing to do anything in Florida because they know they control the rural areas.
As a Floridian, I hope so. Unfortunately, I'm in the heart of Trump country here. Trump has visited four times and always draws a huge crowd. There's no hope for me.
What's crazy is a lot of immigrants I've met would be more republican than anything, often both socially and economically. They bust their ass. They're often used to doing so in their home country except it provides them no opportunity to move up. They come here and do so and they tend to move up. Often those countries are also socially conservative too. Except one thing, the republican base tends to dismiss them primarily because they aren't white and also because of a lot of, largely unfounded, stereotypes.
always draws a huge crowd
Half of whom are probably on medicaid and receiving food stamps.
By gerrymandering, you dilute all of your safe districts to eliminate toss-up districts.
The dems have several extremely safe districts and the rest tilt just barely republican. If there's a swing that brings the voter base at large past the margin of safety the gerrymanderers left themselves, they stand to lose every seat that would have been safe in addition to seats that would have been contested either way.
Don't forget the complete and utter fucking disaster the lack of amy federal aid has been in Puerto Rico. I just recently heard that not a single cent of the the initial 5 billion dollar aid package passed by congress last year has made it to the island. I'm not sure if I can even fully appreciate how angry and frustrated I would be if I lived on the island.
If the wave carries support past a certain point, the gerrymander will hurt Florida. Gerrymander districts try to set up a whole lot of quasi safe districts (55-45) and a few very bad districts (20-80). If the wave reaches a certain point, the creation of more districts with more consistent advantages of a smaller spread becomes a liability.
Well at least Floridians never have any sort of impact over the Presidential Election..
Most of the US follows the same pattern. Democratic cities, Republican surroundings. Since more than half the population of the US is in cities, the small geographic presence of the cities is misleading.
Unfortunately, gerrymandering can take advantage of the size of cities to cordon off the Democratic voters into a single all-Democratic district surrounded by lots of all-Republican districts.
There's a similar problem with the Electoral College. Populous states like California waste millions of votes over the margin needed to win their electoral points. Empty rural states gain bonus electoral points for senators and overrepresentation in the House of Representatives. It results in a suppression of the strength of the popular vote. It also creates a strong incentive for one party to court rural extremists instead of competing for the middle ground.
yeah it's going to heavily depend on who starts voting for the first time and how many puerto ricans move where.
It will help with defending the Senate seat, but the heart of the blue wave would be Orange County, CA with multiple gop congressmen retiring and a tax bill that destroys them. Though Illena Ros Lethians district looks like a good pickup now that she is retiring
I know how you feel, Texas is a pretty odd place as well. I've spent time in one of the most racist cities in the country, truly a shithole if ever there was one, which is only a couple of hours drive from one of the biggest gay and lesbian communities outside of San Francisco, LA or NYC. Every major city in the state has voted for a democratic president since Obama first ran but in the communities outside of the metro areas, Trump frequently one 80+ percent of the vote. After hurricane harvey there was a drag queen dressed up as dorothy from the wizard of oz roller skating up an down Montrose Ave calling out for Toto yet somehow I still had to deal with my partner hearing racist jokes the first time she met my family.
Who’s sources of info on current affairs are Facebook and Fox News
Hasta la vista....rubes