It’s official: Democrat Conor Lamb wins Pennsylvania special election in major upset.

It’s official: Democrat Conor Lamb wins Pennsylvania special election in major upset.

Conservative district.

Gerrymandered by Republicans.

$10+ million spent by Republicans to help Saccone.

Visited by the Trumps to help Saccone.

Won by Trump by a wide margin in 2016.

Not even contested by Democrats in 2014 and 2016.

Republican stronghold since 2002.

And Republicans still lost it.

EDIT: For those asking, this race happened in a gerrymandered district favoring Republicans. The new rules to make a more fair map will take effect this year but Connor Lamb beat Rick Saccone in a heavily gerrymandered district which is impressive.

Fun fact: 119 Republican-held seats are considered less safe than PA-18. Which is to say, if PA-18 can swing blue, then there are 119 House seats that can as well. We only need to win a couple dozen of those.

This is a far larger spread than Republicans can be comfortable with. It means that just to be competitive enough to keep their majority, the party needs to coordinate spending across over a hundred districts.

I hope the party goes bankrupt trying to finance their candidates, and loses anyway.

As always, please remember: this won't happen unless you vote.

Edit: The PA-18 election came down to a margin of several hundred votes. A thin fraction of a single percentage point of the ~226,000 total votes. Every vote counts. You should approach every election with the belief that your vote could be the deciding vote for the seat that will swing congress away from the Republicans.

Because it very well may be. The consequences of this are real. Be involved. Vote, and convince others to vote with you.

PA-18 is a district where Trump won each county on an average of 20% district. Paul Ryan’s district voted for Trump by 10+. Let’s do this Randy Bryce! www.randybryceforcongress.com

Edit: TO BE CLEAR: Clinton had 25k more votes than Trump in that district. Trump won because he won 3/4 counties in PA18 by an average of 20%.

2nd edit: I’ve clearly failed to send a clear message. I understand his campaign wasn’t anti-Trump, but quite a few voters care more about partisanship than anything else. Plus, I just want Paul Ryan to no longer be relevant.

3rd edit: Original numbers I used were based off of Cook Political Reporting’s 2017 Partisan Voter Index. I said “4+” when I should have said “5+”, referring to Wisconsin’s 1st district. Sorry for not citing my source and for not having a clear message.

Trump also started a trade war to garner favor in this district.

fun fact: Lamb is the 6th millennial elected to Congress.

he joins:

Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI)

Matt Gaetz (R-Fox News)

Mike Gallagher (R-WI)

Trey Hollingsworth (R-IN)

Elise Stefanik (R-NY)

Republicans are actually trying to claim Saccone lost because he didn't embrace Trump enough, LOL

You've been doing what you wanted to do. Don't worry about it :)

the party needs to coordinate spending across over a hundred districts

LOL, Republicans spent $10 million on PA-18. For those not wanting to do the math, that's a cool billion dollars over 100 districts.

Yeah, if anyone has that kind of money it's Republicans, but spending a billion fucking dollars just to keep a bare majority in Congress is not what they had in mind.

Remember that this was a gerrymandered district. They won't be fixed until the November election.

I hope you’re paying attention Mr. Trump. Or not, whichever.

From CNN, as linked in the Vox article.

The White House blame game begins.

After millions spent in PA-18 and the President’s weekend rally in Pittsburgh, last night represented a clear warning shot to the Republican party.

Two sources close to White House are blaming state Rep. Rick Saccone for his performance in PA-18 and putting some distance between him and Trump.

The “GOP does not view (the race) as a referendum on Trump. Rather a weak candidate,” one source said. “Candidates either run hard or run scared. It was obvious that Saccone decided to run scared,” said another.

The White House is not officially commenting for now.

Of course he was a "weak" candidate. Its great to know the White House only decides if someone is "strong" or "weak" after the election, 100% correlated with whether or not they won.

And don't forget the abrupt end to the HIC investigation into Russian interference the day before the election, finding that--you'll never believe it--Trump is totally in the clear, guys!

Ayn Rand's ashes can't melt Iron 'staches

Ryan is claiming that Lamb is a conservative anyway

Which would account for why they spent the entire campaign calling him a Peloisi-worshipping, gun stealing, liberal? God these people are ridiculous.

This is before the redistricting, right? That's huge. Congrats PA!

Ending the HIC investigation the day before the special election must go down as one of the dumbest political moves of the year. You're going to make democrats MORE angry the night before an election??

Another fun fact, millions of high school seniors will be turning 18 before the mid-terms. The same millions that are marching today. We are going to see an unprecedented turnout in the mid-terms and I predict we take back the house and the senate. Mark my words.

There are 119 seats that are within the same +/- margin for Dems. Do you think the Republicans are going to be able to throw the same amount of resources at all 119 of those seats as they did at this one?

Can you see Trump stumping for 119 reps? Can you see the GOP establishment ponying up $1.2 billion to make those races (maybe) competitive at the expense of all the other races?

It's going to be a bloodbath in November and I hope it bankrupts the GOP forever.

It was all hands on deck: Trump, Mike Pence, Ivanka Trump, Kellyanne Conway, and Donald Trump Jr. campaigning hard for Saccone. None of it worked. #BlueWave2018

That is a fun fact.

J.D. Law Degree, former Captain in the Marine "Core" (couldn't help myself), and Assistant US Attorney... all at 33 years old.

Edit: To those denigrating themselves for not being as accomplished, just stop right there and read Master_Glorfindel's comment below (it's the wholesome one with the deserved gold). The only person you should be comparing yourself to is the you from the past.

Ryan is claiming that Lamb is a conservative anyway, so this was a win for them.

These fuckers voted in Rick Santorum back in 1990. GOP is so screwed if this keeps up.

$10mil and multiple high-profile rallies. They gave it all they had.

The fact that it was Gerrymandered and they lost shows how many people weren't registered to vote or hadn't voted in a while. They can only Gerrymander with the data of registered voters who voted.

I'd rather they stick their heads in the sand. It will make November that much sweeter.

And now the right-wing says that he ran as "Republican" that only won because of the re-drawn district map (which btw isn't even in place). Lmao the grasp of logic really escapes most of them.

A week ago: Lamb is a Pelosi Liberal!!!

Today: Lamb is basically a Republican

Can you see Trump stumping for 119 reps?

Please? The more he's off doing stupid rallies, the less he's actually governing.

After the last election I'm not taking any chances. Until midterms are over, I'm going to assume that odds are against democrats. The Trump base if also fired up and showing up to vote also. Dems need to fight for more than just taking majority. They need to fight for super majority so we can proceed with A25 proceedings.

Edit: I miss understood how Amendment 25 works. It is done by the Cabinet, which is all appointed by the president. So turning the senate and reps won't do anything with this. Thank you for the clarifications.

Trump, Mike Pence Ivanka Trump Kellyanne Conway Donald Trump Jr

When that's your A-Team, you've fucked up hard.

jesus, what the hell have i been doing.

Yeah, I like how the candidates he endorses and campaigns for were always weak after they lose and his cabinet members and staffers were always dead weight after they were fired or quit. It's almost like he could preempt all of this by attaching himself to good talent the first time around...

I can only imagine what will happen in purple states if democrats are winning deep red states

And also reminds people of the investigation into Trump x Russia.

Come on Texas...

Democrats can’t count on every GOP candidate be a pedofile though. Just some.

Correct.

IIRC, Conor Lamb has ONE WEEK to decide to either stick with this district or run in another district come midterms.

See? We're still winning!

Personally I'm fine with them thinking that just as loooong as they want.

Come on, Beto!

Be prepared for a shit ton of voter suppression tactics out of the GOP. When their policies suck and they're out of ideas, only way to win is keep people away from the polls.

it's not about logic. It's about tricking and misinforming the electorate.

Also lost the stronghold Alabama Senate seat.

Won by Romney by 17 points. Won by McCain by 11 points. Republican enough that the Democrats didn't even field a candidate for the House in 2014 or 2016.

Good. Let them. Let them all jump aboard the sinking Trump ship.

Ayn Rand wrote gushy notes in her journals about a child murdering pshycopath and refered to him as "the ideal man". This has nothing to do with the thread, I just take any oppertunity to point out that she was completly insane.

And a little easier. This is gonna be a fight. Koch’s are gonna pour a shit ton ($400m?) into the midterms. They know this is a unique chance to get some legislation passed while they hold congress and the presidency. They aren’t just going to give it up.

I'm picturing a lot of candidates telling trump not to come, he's a walking negative.

It also doesn't give the GOP a future PR counter to Mueller investigation news. Now Mueller's investigation IS the Russia investigation.

Such a weird move on their part.

Matt Gaetz (R-Fox News)

fun fact: that guy is a total ass

Say it again in an Victorian Era Accent! Your getting me hot.

Just look up Ayn Rand + William Hickman. He kidnapped a girl, murdered her, desecrated her body, then threw the remains out of a moving car and Ayn Rand thought that was just swell. Specifically she said "other people did not exist for him" and that made him "the Ideal Man". Interestingly she would go on to use that same phrase to describe some of her protagonists, and she may have modeled them on Hickman. Basically she thought you should pursue your own goals and self interest above all else, even if that meant murding kids. A large portion of our country views her as some kind of prophet now, so that's disturbing.

Wisconsin has some interesting voter suppression techniques this year. It's called not having an election, and it's really helping them not lose.

Spending a billion to keep a majority in congress was their worst case scenario.

Spending a billion, or more, and getting widely trounced is a nightmare. The consequences to the party start to get severe; who's going to keep pouring money into a black hole? Most of their donors aren't ideologues, they're just greedy, and expect an ROI, as they do with everything. Once it becomes clear they won't get one, they're going to cut the purse strings.

It's like watching a large dam develop a crack. You can just watch in fascination as it gets wider, and deeper, and spiderwebs ever further out, until suddenly it all smashes and everything washes away.

Their behavior is best explained by "what helps me the most right now"

Logic usually doesn't seem to be helpful

Has Trump deleted all his tweets where he endorsed Saccone yet, like he did with other losses? Or made the incoherent tweet where he claims to have never actually supported Saccone to begin with while simultaneously claiming that his support boosted Saccone's numbers?

Democrats can’t count on every GOP candidate be a pedofile though.

The year's not over yet.

Don't stop, I'm almost there

Isn't this essentially telling the base it's ok to vote for Democrats because some are just conservatives in blue?

That... is an interesting choice

After the last election I'm not taking any chances. Until midterms are over, I'm going to assume that odds are against democrats.

As we all should for every election. This was one of the reasons Trump won in the first place. People thought Hillary was a shoe-in to win and didn't show up at the polls.

Even if it's uncontested, there has to be a House rep or something state or local on the ballot worth going to vote for. I go every single time, and assume by default that Republicans will show up in droves to support their candidates and issues. And short of 2008, I've been correct every single time since I've been registered to vote.

Vote early and often.

The fucking moron in chief

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/checkpoint/wp/2018/03/14/trump-is-surrounded-by-marines-that-...

Then he starts lashing out at them on Twitter

Trump went to a no name deep red district not once but twice for a seat that will exist only for a few more months due to redistricting. His party paid an absurd $81 per vote received. He threatened global steel tariffs against literally billions of people to appease a district population less than 1/3rd the size of Chicago. Of course he's watching and if he had feelings he'd be humiliated.

Pro-choice (but personally against it), pro-union (and unapologetically so), pro-healthcare, and soft on gun control.

He's pretty clearly an Appalachian Democrat.

Republicans are reaping what they've sown.If this continues, some major decisions are going to have to be made.

¡Repeal and Replace Rafael Cruz!

And this is in a motherfucking gerrymander. Paul Ryan must be shitting bricks right about now.

but this district won't exist for midterms

he still lives in a district..... just not the same boundary as before.

of course he should run.

I heard he woke up with a bit of Santorum in his cheeks.

PA-18 was +20 for Trump.

I heard Rick had a hard night yesterday on CNN.

Suddenly I feel a lot better about myself.

Spending a billion fucking dollars, and possibly losing majority anyway. I love it. I hope they empty their coffers.

Can you see the GOP establishment ponying up $1.2 billion to make those races (maybe) competitive at the expense of all the other races?

The Koch Brothers you mean? Unfortunately...yes.

Too bad all the money in the world won't be able to prop up the batshit crazies that run in those races.

“I personally don’t support it, but it should be up to the individual woman” is literally being “pro-choice”.

Locally famous for beating a DUI because of his dad's political connections. Nationally famous for being a total buffoon.

I don't think they thought too long about the reprocussions of this

That just makes the victory even sweeter

Do not get complacent

This is good news, but people need to remember to vote in EVERY SINGLE ELECTION. It is clear that Trump's policies are only going to harm more and more people, so voters need to stay angry and keep chomping at the bit to replace these corrupt GOP thugs.

I'm shocked this hasn't lead to impeachment. When Jerkolf Twitler was first elected I was sure the GOP was going to paint themselves as heroes by impeaching Trump with enough time before midterms to spin the narrative that he was a madman and they saved the world from him. Apparently I'm a better political strategist than the whole of the GOP.

That third point is just incredible.

Like yesterday when he said "I've almost got the cabinet I want" uhhh bitch, you get to pick them. How did you not have that from day one? Fucking moron.

Your comment combined with your username is enough to make me wet my breeches

This would explain why in one of her more popular novels, a female character falls in love with the protagonist right after he raped her.

Overcoming a 20+ swing spells a bloodbath for places that had nowhere near that high a majority. There are only a handful of incumbents who had that kind of juice.

https://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election/

Everyone likes to think it was because Roy Moore was such a horrible candidate. But democrats campaigned hard in Alabama. Doug Jones ads were on ALL the TVs. The ground game was intense and vigorous.

It wasn't Roy Moore that caused those legions of black women in rural parts of the state to whip up support.

Trump campaigned in Flor/Bama hard. He blasted Jones and praised Moore. He's a toxic, racist, treasonous blowhard, and now every Republican candidate has to wriggle and twist to get out of his light.

It won't be enough. Millenials and Z's are rallying with rage. Organizing with anger. Riding waves of disgust with Trump and the Republican leadership.

Republicans who have relied on gerrymandering and dog-whistle politics are going to suffer hard in November. Paul Ryan, leader of the house, who is not a pedophile or a Christian zealot. He's going to lose.

Republicans lost their fiscal conservative cred when they blew a hole in the deficit to give tax breaks to corporations and millionaires, while the rest get crumbs. They've shown incompetence at every turn. They've been complicit and party over country. They can't run from that, they can't hide. They have nothing to show for their years in the congress or senate.

fun fact: Lamb is the 6th millennial elected to Congress.

fun fact: This just means you guys are starting to get old. Welcome to the club old fucker.

Well in fairness, he didn’t actually “stump” for Saccone. He just commented on his looks and then yammered on about completely unrelated shit.

NYTimes still says it hasn’t been called. Vox is citing some person on Twitter.

I just donated again to the Iron Stache. Paul Ryan and his special interest groups need to GTFO!

Order Number: AB53476047

Gerrymandering kind of has always been a part of the process. The difference is in 2010 when Republicans took over and did it the algorithms had been improved to a level way beyond what we had ever seen. The rise of technology made gerrymandering unbelievably efficient.

I love all the GOP supporters who are saying "Well, he under-performed, so curb your enthusiasm..."

Yeah, he slightly under-performed and squeaked out a win in a district where Trump won BY 20 POINTS LESS THAN 2 YEARS AGO!

The mental gymnastics taking place here are laughable.

In 2019, an incompetent president and his adminstration were sent to prison from crimes against the american people. They promptly started whining about their innocence, but the evidence was ironclad. Today, they survive in solitary confinement in a minimum security federal prison. If you think a compromised president and a complicit congress is a problem, and you want to help, remember to vote democrat in every election.

also vehemently against the tax cuts

I don't think they think at all.

Right? Everyone is great and fantastic until they don't win something, then they're a weak coffee boy an nothing more.

Just look at this shift from the 2016 election. This is what a blue wave looks like, whether the GOP thinks it's coming or not.

"Losing is actually winning you guys, we just dump millions into special elections and send the president and his whole family to campaign for our candidates as a bonus"

"Sure he violated me, but he knows how to take charge! He tells it like it is!"

Actually explains a lot of the psyche of conservative communities who vote against their own self-interest.