This is about to get really bad. Its bad enough already.
There's no easy way in this situation. Door to door combat in a city, taking it block by block; that shits terrifying even if you're trained for it. The rebuilt Iraqi Army isn't the most proficient in the world (ive trained some and seen it first hand). Add in an enemy like that who doesn't care at all and are willing to use suicide attacks and human shields and it makes urban warfare infinitely worse.
You couldn't pay me enough to be fighting in Mosul right now.
ISIS doesn't make sense. Looking long term, how are they going to have an Islamic state when no other nation on the planet will deal with them. These people are mercenaries and monsters who's only end goal is money and bloodshed.
how are they going to have an Islamic state when no other nation on the planet will deal with them.
Well, the answer to that is simple, out of the mouth of an ISIS combatant; "We will not stop till our flag is on the eifeltower, the statue of liberty and the big ben"
Too bad Big Ben is the bell inside the tower! Checkmate ISIS.
The problem with rebellion is gathering enough people for it to actually be successful without being killed before anything substantial happens. If all of them rebelled at once, they could probably win, but orchestrating it is basically impossible.
Amazing, this is movie quality bad guy stuff
It's funny because the rebels in Aleppo used the same tactics and they were the good guys for us and our media was reporting that if the rebels lost the civilians would see genocide.
Edit - you can downvote all you like but that's the truth, we were hearing about Aleppo non-stop when the Syrian government and Russia were moving in on rebels after they refused to let the civilians leave.
Disgusting how MSM picks and chooses sides and distorts the facts.
how realistic would it be for the people inside of the city to rebel?
i don't imply anything, i honesty don't know and I'm asking.
i mean, i know the locals don't have guns or training, but my naive mind tells me that if the situation were as bad as described here then most people would rather go down trying to beat their torturers with a stick than being used as a human shield. or is it somehow easier to simply join the guys with the guns (i.e. daesh)?
This is the best tl;dr I could make, original reduced by 82%. (I'm a bot)
UNITED NATIONS - The United Nations believes up to 150,000 civilians are trapped in Mosul's Old City where Islamic State extremists want to keep them as human shields - and are shooting people trying to flee, the U.N. humanitarian chief in Iraq said Friday.
Since October, U.S.-backed Iraqi forces have been battling IS militants in Mosul, Iraq's second-largest city.
Already, 860,000 people have fled Mosul, which was "Beyond the worst case" scenario of 750,000 that the U.N. had planned for, Grande said.
When I said it was basically impossible, I was speaking specifically about this situation, not about rebellions in general.
ISIS doing what it does best, terrorizing other Muslims.
What does ISIS want with Ben Roethlisberger
I was in a dozen fire fights with Iraqi attachments and about 1/10 were batshit crazy like a lot of us when we were in the shit. Laughing like a lunatic not afraid to advance when they were given the order to, actually looking down the sights of their rifle when they shoot, a real decent soldiers. The other 9/10 would give Usain Bolt a run for his money at the first whiff of contact.
The rebuilt Iraqi Army isn't the most proficient in the world
That is the nicest way ive ever heard that said.
Battle of Mosul started on the 16 of Oktober, and is now in its final phase were the Old City center is completly surrounded. However this is a dense maze where air support is difficult and ISIS surprise attacks with suicide bombers are more effective
Situation 18/12 https://mobile.twitter.com/NinevehMC/status/810518530001174528
Situation 20/01 https://mobile.twitter.com/NinevehMC/status/822469095350239232
Situation 2 days ago: https://mobile.twitter.com/NinevehMC/status/875398825606864896/photo/1
This has all the tropes to be made into a Hollywood movie within the next 5 years (assuming Isis are finished by then) I guarantee it. "The Siege of Mosul"
Yeah, but its also hard to have a positive opinion on a group of people who are systematically killing your friends and neighbours on the streets. I am from the region, and there is no love for them here.
That's not necessarily true. History has some examples of successful rebellion. They're particularly effective when conducted to aid advancing liberation forces.
Problem is, sometimes those forces don't arrive. Like in Warsaw. And Iraq in 91
98% of it is, by size. These 150K remaining people live in a few city blocks, called the Old City. Imagine an army conquering all of New York state, and the rebels controlling just the bottom few blocks of Manhattan, where 150K people work. Mosul itself is a city of over a million.
And here I was wondering who is this big Ben, and why does ISIS want their flag on him.
The problem of the Marxist is that it is never the peasants and workers rebelling. From the early days of Lenin and Trotsky, it was educated intellectuals instigating revolt. Look it up: Mao, Che, Castro, Lenin, Stalin, Pol Pot, Kim Il Sung, all the Leftist revolutionary leaders. They were upper-middle class types who were educated like the rich but deprived of the elite's benefits.
Even Marx. It isn't the huddles masses who revolt. It is the idealistic idle hands with food in their belly.
Classic collective action problem
Wan't Mosul supposed to be liberated like last summer?
mark wahlberg's next movie confirmed.
Isn't this the city in danger of being wiped off the map by a crumbling dam? I can't even imagine what's going through anyone's minds over there right now; simply horrifying.
There is no Americans in Mosul fighting only Iraqis, so yea staring Mark Wahlberg sounds right.
Came here to say that, thank you. The double standards and how it is portrait in the media is unbelievable. I just hope most people don't blindly buy into it.
I get that and all but every single time some kind of massacre like this occurs, people talk about "Well it's easy people can rebel." It's not that simple and easy. People are assuming this is like the great America. It's easy to be saints in America. People in Iraq specifically after the invasion were used to being oppressed so translators would tell American marines to be rough with them and abuse them physically because it would be the only way to draw boundaries and the like. I'm not sure how much of that was true but you basically have generations of people used to being pushed around. Just look at the way Mexico is. Even today with so much "support" in combating against drug cartels, violence still occurs on a daily basis. People oppressed under the heavy presence of these gangs don't "rebel" when they have hope. Hope is what keeps them alive that they might live a better day. People under terror from these cartels don't unify and rebel because if they try, their families die.
People need to stop mentioning all willy nilly "Oh you should revolt, it has totally worked in the past." Yeah well in the past it wasn't also in this specific situation where these people find it nearly impossible to send out communications and collaborate in some kind of rebellion effort. Also the no weapons thing is huge and how a lot of westerners seem to just not give two shits about the middle east. I mean look at Syria. Nevermind the opposition possibly collaborating with terrorists. What happened to the opposition group there? They got decimated and wiped out.
People who have lived behind computer screens talking about revolutions and the like are really dumb. First and foremost, to commit acts of rebellion, you become a terrorist yourself whether it is in the name of good or evil. Second, you must be ready to die and give up even the lives of your loved ones for the greater good. Meaning you might have to watch your child get brutally beaten and murdered to death if it means keeping secrets that can seriously hurt your efforts. And these are two things majority of people even under dictatorship rule are not willing to do.
But let's get one thing straight. This isn't a goddamn movie or some stupid ass TV show. This is real life. When people make those decisions to rebel, it's not just themselves or their families and friends that die. It's innocent people. It's all shits and giggle behind a reddit screen until real people start dying from your decisions. It's easy to sit back and judge others while playing a facade of the saint living in paradise but in the battlefield or in the midst of chaos, it's nearly impossible to uphold the same "standards."
And PS I'm going to bet my life saving that more rebellions have failed in all of history than they have succeeded. How many individuals died in the total of all rebellions compared to how many survived to see their own rebellion succeed? People who watch a lot of movies with stupid ass "save the day" moment like Lord of the Rings say shit like this. Unrealistic, fantasy. A famous saying I've heard to be quite prophetic. You know what they call people trying to be heroes in these kinds of situations? People who get other innocent civilians killed.
I read somewhere that they operate more like a mafia at the top. And the religious extremism and the conquering is really just a tool for getting money and power
And they get to rape a lot of women, which is always popular for getting the young men going.
I read this amazing Esquire article on the Beslan Hostage Crisis in 2004. It was when a Chechen terrorist group took over a school and 300+ people died. Amazing perspective on what it's like when you're in the middle of it, and even have an idea that your own government (Russia) won't care about you in the crossfire.
People will try to survive how they can. Some things are just bigger than all of us.
Maybe they were running to get to a bigger battle somewhere else.
2 Zero 2 Dark Thirty: Marky's mark
My favorite bot
Ok Donald it's time to start that secret 30 day plan to defeat ISIS you certainly didn't just make up.
Any day now
I can't begin to imagine how hard it must be to try to explain this scenario to your children. My heart breaks for these humans.
There's certainly precedent for soldiers to rape their way through villages.
Remember the "celebration" with Bush II when we 'won'?
Hysterical laughter was my thing too, when the bullets and the bombs started flying. Like I was in a roller coaster or something.
Because they are the ones with money and food in the area. When your only interaction with America is when they bombed your city and killed a dozen civilians to maybe take out one IS leader, it's hard to have a positive opinion of the US.
So at this point it's lasted longer than Stalingrad. Ah, the joys of urban warfare. :/
Good thing Bush and Obama stabilized the region lollololol
Well they both do like rape*
Most people like sex. Brainwash them into thinking they have a right to it, and...
Looking long term, how are they going to have an Islamic state when no other nation on the planet will deal with them.
Well, take a look at what historical "Chaliphate" (covering entire Middle East, parts of Europe - Spain, Balkans up to Austria, Turkey, North of Africa, some other territories; their goal to achieve; as according to ultra-muslim beliefs "any land on which..." - I quote from memory, ok - "...a flag of Islam was ever raised must remain Muslim and be taken back if ever conquered by infidels") used to be and see that they don't really need any other nation to deal with.
They reached their peak in terms of territory and are now shrinking rapidly on multiple fronts.
They'll eventually go back to hiding in deserts and blending with the population until such time as the conditions are right for them to expand again.
But not before there is a lot of absolutely brutal urban warfare in their key cities.
The poor local population is all I can think of. Trapped and a LOT of them them will die senselessly. God I hope I'm wrong about that.
Talk about a sick cycle.
Thats ISIS logic. They would be incredibly naive to believe that their current actions will achieve the same results as to what happened 1400 yrs ago. They are not even using the same MO.
It is serious. Jesus is a major figure in Islam and is prophesized to return from the dead at Armaggedon to smite the wicked. In fact, even though Mohammad seems to be the most revered prophet (and the last, or more recent), Jesus is the only Islamic prophet who will come back from the dead - Mohammad will not.
The big difference between Christianity and Islam with regards to Jesus is that they reject the idea that he is God's son (in a literal sense) or that he is God himself (in the trinitarian sense).
.. and promptly continued to make sure it got worse there, not better.
They don't work for us. It's their job to provide the circumstances for stock clearing and re-intake, and by stock I mean bombs. Lots and lots of bombs.
One dropped every twenty minutes for the last 15 years...
But Katy Perry already gave us the answer to this problem... shower them with love. If everyone captive shows love towards ISIS they will let them go and surrender themselves.
Well if there weren't any civilians in the city, ISIS would have been bombed into oblivion and the battle would have been long over
Well yeah they managed to be fighting Americans, Russians, Iranians and Kurds all at once. What did they expect? It was always going to end badly, no amount of religious fervor wins you that fight.
This assumes the Marxist vanguard knows what is best for the workers, or will even carry it out. Looking at history, the results of vanguards seizing the reins of power is rather dubious.
Because the proletariat is often too busy working to survive and put food on their families table to revolt. A vanguard is often nessessary to begin a revolution because they have time and resources to actually gather together forces for revolt. This isn't an issue for marxist theory at all. The people who reach peak class consciousness and are willing to take revolutionary action will instigate a communist revolution, not every average worker just trying to survive.
Someone should make a table of the same words used to describe friends vs enemies ie;"Terrorists" vs "Freedom Fighters" "Human Meatshield" vs "Residents we happened to be living with" "Genocide" vs "Complete victory"
I believe there are American special forces operating there in a limited capacity
I suspect it's going to feel a bit like the "commit suicide and definitely die, Vs go into battle and probably die" conundrum. Except the first guy to Rebel is the one that is basically committing suicide. At least complying gives your enough time to maybe find another way out.
Nobody taught the peasants oratory.
No, it was/is both. The Mosul dam on the Tigris has been a concern for many years because it is built on rock that is prone to dissolution (gypsum). That was a problem from the start (bad design), which was being mitigated by drilling below the dam and injecting cement grout, an ongoing maitenance practice. It was taken over by Daesh a couple of years ago and people worried about what would happen without the continual grouting, but was reclaimed by the Kurdish forces. The Iraq government and coalition forces have restarted the grouting process with the help of an Italian contractor, so it's "safe" for the moment, though the risk is still significant.
The dams upstream from Raqqa on the Euphrates were also controlled by Daesh until much more recently (this spring), and were put under coalition control a few months ago as part of the plan to encircle Raqqa. For a while there were worries that Daesh had put explosives on the dams and was going to blow them up to flood Raqqa as coalition forces advanced, and then blame the disaster on the coalition.
So, similar story, similar concerns about having Daesh in control of the dams, but both sets of dams are now under SDF / Kurdish control and are for the moment stable, though not without ongoing but managed risks in the case of the Mosul dam.
Pretty much sums it up, theyre a militant group looking for power and land to control. They already have a fair amount, they just want more.
As a muslim, ISIS baffle me. I don't know what teaching they followed (probably wahabi from saudi). The way I see them: a bunch of idiot uneducated sheep(and probably unemployed) who followed someone with mess up ideology who in turn have the backing from some powerful arab with money (and their own agenda). For a group to be named I'slamic'SIS, they sure as hell kill a lot of muslims! What logic is that?
Funny, I've lived surround by Muslims for 5 years now and they all seem really nice.... sneaky buggers.
I get that way too when the dentist is about to jab me - I really don't like needles. I'm just going to assume that those situations must be roughly the same.
I honestly don't believe there is a proxy war here
Just my opinion, but what I see is many groups of people with different ideas about what they want for their country. Many of these people are misguided and willing to kill for what they want. At this point I also believe all the US wants is some semblance of stability so it can get out of this mess it made.
Whatever proxy war or agenda there was has now devolved into a brutal power vacuum.
They think Jesus is coming back, not allah.
Thier intention is to bring about the return of Jesus. They think Jesus will come back once an apocalyptic war starts and they will be his warriors. After that happens they will defeat the antichrist (anti-Messiah) in Jerusalem.
Edit: Lol keep down voting me - what I said is well documented. I have no idea why this is so odious to some people. Don't like my source? Read The Atlantic's price https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2015/03/what-isis-really-wants/384980/
lets see how media will treat this as compared to how they reported on Aleppo...
I am guessing US will do the same thing Russia did in this situation
Eh, I don't think they mean all young men, just the ones who are the most influenced by ISIS's message.
For instance there's dudes with multiple wives in the middle east and as a result a few people migrate to europe or abroad because otherwise they'd have no chance at a relationship until they're super old. I suppose if you take some of those young dudes that just want to sleep with chicks, offer them all the women they want in exchange for military service and no moral issues because "They're all infidels" then those guys might be swayed enough to join.
It's probably an enviroment run by monsters to create more monsters.
Haha, yeah they're .
They just asked if it was possible they didn't say they should or "why not"
That's... almost commendable. They set an impressive (and impossible) goal and are dying like stupid flies for it.
Then again, the only reason they exist is the war. Just like the Nazis, if they stop the war machine, they'll likely implode.
I really wish they would stop getting funding from our governments.
I would imagine it's easiest (not individually) to just comply with IS and hope the situation is resolved soon. It appears as though the situation has begun to reach a breaking point, however.
To cause division. ISIS's goal is create a rift between British non-Muslims and Muslims. The idea is to make Muslims suffer so much at the hands of non-Muslims in the UK that they want to strike back. Either by lone wolf attacks or by joining ISIS so they increase numbers.
It's talked about heavily in the book "On Killing". In WW2, only 15 percent of soldiers fired their rifles. In Korea it was about 50 percent, and in Vietnam it was over 90 percent. They were able to up the figures due to more intensive and realistic training (such as being conditioned to shoot at a man shaped target).
black and brown people. none of whom sat in the white house when we decided to invade iraq
Condoleezza Rice and Colin Powell?
Rice is a militant neocon and Powell went to the UN with a high school powerpoint to sell invasion.
Ah, the abrahamic cinematic universe.
Sounds like fun on a bun
A google is a huge number though.
Sounds like desperation
"We should take the extremists... and PUSH them somewhere else!!"
Every side in Aleppo sucks. Except the noncombatants, if there are any left.
Once everyone else has moved out, carpet bomb every square meter of the city.
That would be a great idea if they weren't using civilians as a shield. Do you really think that they would ever trust anyone proposing this and just let the civilians walk away?
Of course not. They aren't quite that stupid.
That's probably it
Iraki freedom was started in 2003 because of weapons of mass destruction that weren't there, and this is where we're at 1.06 trillion dollars and 500,000 dead later. Maybe it's because it's not happening in front of our eyes that people are not going: "WTF!".
You should look beyond the Google number.
He's this famous british gay pornstar. His dick is so massive it's part of the london skyline.
So civilians in Mosul have two choices, stay and be human shields, or flee and face sectarian shit like this:
Jesus is not dead, but alive in heaven. Muslims believe that Jesus is not God or the son of God, but a messenger of God. Muslims also believe that Jesus will be sent down from heaven to end Armageddon and kill the Antichrist.
Source: am Muslim, have looked this up in various books written by Muslim scholars.
It's surprisingly good
I imagine the problem is how large and closely nit families there are. You'll always have a loved one to be punished for your bravery. It's hard enough I'm sure to take action knowing you'd be brutally tortured or executed, but imagine knowing your wife, mother, children, etc receiving that in your place.
History tells us that soldiers in armed conflicts commit a lot of rapes. I don't think this means "young men enjoy raping women" but that doesn't mean it doesn't happen.
I'm sorry what? There's reports of rebels firing upon fleeing civilians in Aleppo, absolutely not all civilians were pro-rebel, some even stayed after the rebels evacuated and celebrated the SAA in the streets as they liberated the city.
I'm not sure how related it is and this won't be the most accurate because I don't remember the source, but I remember seeing somewhere that only a very small percentage of people actually fire their weapons at other human beings. I think it was a documentary about WW2 or something like that, maybe it was about Vietnam. I don't have any personal experience with this kind of thing either but I wouldn't be surprised if a statistic like that was true.
So it's either comply and hope you don't die in the battle or rebel and probably die immediately
without the brains
It's literally just the money.
ISIS soldiers earn between $400 and $1,200 a month, plus a $50 stipend for their wives and $25 for each child. This is after a recent 40% pay cut.
Meanwhile the US pays it's entry soldiers a mere $1491/month.
Both are poor desperate people fighting for a conflict they probably don't care much for. When you factor in the COL in the countries ISIS recruits from Vs the US, ISIS actually pays better & the people they recruit are far more desperate.
Yep nothing at all to do with the middle east. It would be a peaceful paradise if it weren't for those pesky Americans!
I'd rather not watch them behead my children for my "sins". This way, you get a chance of survival.
The power vacuum was planned, as Cheney and other officials are on record stating what did occur, was what was going to occur if they eliminated leaders like Saddam and Qaddafi. They knew that was coming.
We still strongly support Saudi Arabia which is the #1 grower and and proselytizer of Wahhabist islam, the sect that ISIS is composed of. They are our allies. They literally grow the terrorist cancer of Wahhabism.
We support the YPG and the creation of a Kurdist state carved out of sections of Syria and Turkey, seen as a terrorist or rebel organization by those governments that over the years has gone back and forth of seeing them as allies or enemies. They are majority funded by the U.S.
We wish to prevent the oil pipeline from Syria to Russia which would give Russia greater control over it's energy assets, which is it's #1 tie to western europe as a major export.
The part you've missed is there isn't 1 proxy war. There's a dozen, all with separate puppet masters and actors. Some are going to plan, some are complete fubar, but all we're intentional.
Some are directed by corporations vying for profits. Some are congressionally controlled with all the bureaucratic red tape that entails (basically wars controlled by politicians are un-winnable and completely pointless: see Vietnam and Afghanistan. Some are CIA or KBG plans put forth by their respective nations.
You can never oversimplify the geo-political machinations of the middle east conflict. It's not just 1 play in action.
I think the plan involves Allah coming back and smiting the shit out of everyone
Hi, Canadian here. I'd have to say we just don't drink the kool-aid as much to bother. We don't want to be involved in what we see to clearly be an illegitimate war of political and economic interest...Which ultimately may not even benefit those orchestrating it all that much anyway. It's not really our thing, you know? Besides...our husband is America and he's super aggressive with big muscles. We get to be the softer and more friendly folk to compensate.
Bullshit. The Syrian government and Russia both tried to get the rebels to evacuate the city multiple times and they chose to stall and holdout until their friends from outside Aleppo (Jabhat Al-Nusra aka Al-Qaeda in Syria) could break the siege. In the end the rebels chose to evacuate at the last minute.
Tell me again, who are the guys who destabilized Iraq to hell, on false pretences, because of their president's daddy issues?
This shit is your (as in, the U.S.'s) doing. Without your illegal Iraq invasion and the resulting chaos, ISIS wouldn't have had a chance in hell of making such territorial gains.
I actually agree that Europe needs to be much more active and unified, militarily and not, in dealing with international crises like the ones you guys like to cause at a drop of a hat; but let's not go strutting around and pretending that the U.S. is being heroic by contributing to trying to fix the clusterfuck it caused.
It's a lot of languages, including Scandinavian ones
Look up Iraq pre-gulf war (US instigated), Afghanistan pre-Taliban (US funded and armed), and Syria pre-rebels (Also US funded and armed).
Sure it wasn't paradise on Earth, but it was actually a pretty decently developed place, on the level of Greece and Turkey. Women and girls were encouraged to get education, they didn't have to wear burqas and be accompanied by men when going out, many people had cars and a middle class was forming.
Then the US came giving guns to religious nut-cases, toppled their governments, and bombed all their infrastructure.
So yea, the US have some responsibility to this mess.
Surely that's german?
Whatever proxy war or agenda there was has now devolved into a brutal power vacuum.
If only someone could have predicted such circumstances.
Yes, bomb 150,000 non-combatant men, women and children so the guys that burn people alive on TV will finally turn to political discourse.
That's not how this works.
98% of the city is liberated
The dam was damaged, but dams are difficult to completely destroy. ISIS was pushed back before they could properly rig the dam
Thousands died from the Ebola outbreak but proper medical response partially fueled by the media coverage reduced and contained the spread.
I'm willing to bet 99% of Americans couldn't draw you a map of Iraq and accurately identify Mosul if you asked them on the street. This is an unfair criticism of Trump.
To shreds you say?
I'm happy you have the choice to not support them
With a gun
That's pure BS. People are much freeier to live when liberated from ISIS.
...our husband is America
You proved me wrong.
What religion do you expect those 150k hostages practice? Almost like it's more complicated than "Islam bad."
Yeah but the president is expected to be an educated smart worldly person...
And the innocent civilians that are being kept hostage in the city? Just wipe thousands of them out too?
No that's the Googol, 100 zeroes.
It's both, unless you are a Muslim scholar you're not going to help with religious reform, but the west can show accountability for destabilising the region.
A much better solution is to build a wall around it and let them all starve.
Of course, that's still a terrible solution, because ISIS will ensure every one of those 150k civilians starve before they do.
It needs to be taken. It's gonna be bloody but there's no alternative, unless ISIS could be convinced to leave by sparing their lives. Doubt they'd agree to thet.
Even though I agree that that situation is obviously horrible, I think it's important to realize that such a small amount of American people ever had any say in what the US was doing. It isn't like US civilians are collectively happy with the current situation.
You are kidding right? As opposed to ISIS who are using the populace for a human shield?
Are you saying young men enjoy raping women?
It's not about having territory to control. It's about controlling people. And while this kills people they could control, it sends a chilling message to people they conquer: don't fight us, you'll die too. And the message they try to send to their enemies: don't fight us, they'll die too.
Yes, because the president of the united states should only be expected to know as much as the lowest tier of american, especially when discussing conflicts they're currently involved in.
I wonder how Allah would fare against tomahawk missiles.
And on that note, maybe we should stop giving technologically advanced weapons to countries who support terrorism. I don't see them flying F15s out of Mosul anytime soon, but who can honestly say ISIS couldn't deploy some of those SAM installations we gave to the UAE/Qatar?
Fellow Canadian here, "illegitimate war"? I fail to see anything illegitimate about crushing ISIS to dust and torching their corpses.
Google tells me they had a population of 664.221 in 2015.
At the same time, Aleppo was liberated in december 2016 and is recovering. But medias don't care.
And let's not forget batshit-crazy ideology.