Merkel's conservatives, SPD clinch coalition agreement: sources

Merkel's conservatives, SPD clinch coalition agreement: sources

Two things of note:

There will still be votes among the members of the respective parties. This isn't a fully done deal yet - especially the SPD seems to be rather torn all in all.

Ministries that we heard about so far:

Foreign, Finance and Labor/Social Affairs, Family, Justice, Environment = SPD

Economy and Defense = CDU

Interior, Transport, Development aid = CSU

I hope they read the agreement, understand it and vote based on their conscience.

SPD already had the Foreign Ministry in the last coalition, but yeah, the Finance Ministry is a pretty big score for the Social Democrats.

Foreign, Finance

Wait, what? She’s giving her tiny junior coalition partner two of the three most important ministries?

This is quite a major thing that all the sceptics are completely glossing over. The SPD is set to reside over the finance ministry which basically means they will be in charge of Germany's euro zone policy, which could essentially spell the end of austerity. Considering that euro zone reform was one of the biggest pledges made by Schulz it seems he may actually achieve it. How this is nothing but a good thing for SPD supporters beats me.

I just read an article saying this.

Schulz sees a one in a lifetime opportunity to bring the EU forward with Macron in France and a really weak Merkel. What is having fewer votes for the SPD for some years against a major leap forward in Europe?

On the other hand, the CSU's stance on crime, especially stuff like weed is pretty retarded.

Also, I'm not sure that it will hurt the AfD, I think it will mostly just normalise their behaviour, you can see that by Bavaria having the most AfD voters per capita out of the western states, despite beeing the toughest on crime and immigration out of them.

inb4 we get a poll with AfD bigger or equal results to SPD.

The latest YouGov had SPD at 17 and AFD at 15.

Seehofer as Interior Minister may mean a significant shift in Germany's migration policy. More deportations, less refugee intake - that may be a way to limit AfD's support.

I understand that people from that angle will likely celebrate that, but if that comes at the cost of a general "tough on crime"-stance that Bavaria is famous for we might lose more than we gain.

Not to mention there are both other kind of reasonable CSU candidates if that is what one desires (Joachim Herrmann comes to mind) and the prospect of getting Söder as Minister President of Bavaria doesn't exactly make me happy either.

Transportation and interior to CSU then?

Kill me.

I still hope the SPD Members burn the Deal (and the GroKo with it) to the fucking ground.

Update on further ministries:

Family, Environment and Justice = SPD

Transport, Development aid = CSU

Because the vast majority of electors vote for national and tangible local issues. The working class voter that used to be SPD doesn't see any effects on ECB or Eurozone structural reforms.

It's complicated. A lot of people probably will.

On the other hand politics means compromises and compromising sometimes mean turning a shitty situation into something workable. The first talks between FDP/CDU/Greens failed completely so it's between this and new elections.

More deportations, less refugee intake - that may be a way to limit AfD's support.

Deportations are the responsibility of the German states, not the federal government; the federal government can at most adjust the legal basis, and that only within the limits imposed by the constitution and EU law.

In practice, deportations are mostly constrained by pragmatic issues, in particular the fact that the receiving state has to agree, that deportations are expensive, and that deportations have to be done in a way that is compatible with international law and the German constitution.

As for refugee intake, that's largely outside Germany's control, as asylum law is an EU competence per Article 78 TFEU, and Germany therefore is constrained by the Qualification Directive and the Dublin Regulation, legislation that it has to execute.

You would be better served looking at the legislation that's currently being debated in the European Parliament and Council of the EU (you are familiar with that proposed legislation, right?) to reform Dublin in particular. Mind you, I have my doubts that it'll pass in its current form, but it's more likely to have an effect than the person who is heading the German Ministry of the Interior, who is still bound by cabinet decisions.

So there are segregated streets in Hebron and Gabriel said it reminded him of apartheid. He isn’t the only one:

Israel’s treatment of Palestinians in Hebron is 'apartheid', former Tory international development minister says. Desmond Swayne hit out at segregated streets in the city

Source

If you put it that way his actions in the past months actually make sense. I just wished it could have been achieved without the potential downfall of social democracy in Germany.

Looking forward to Minister of the Interior Horst Seehofer...

Road tolls for everybody.

I think Schulz is a good choice as he has vast experience in foreign affairs since he was in the EU parliament for around 20 years and was even president of the parliament for several years. So he knows very well how to work with the other EU countries and the EU itself.

With Seehofer as the minister of Interior I figure that the stance towards drugs gets quite a bit stricter.

Nothing in essence, but people who use that phrase tend to focus more on optics and revenge rather than rehabilitation and results.

The question becomes: will the finance or the economy minister represent Germany in the Eurogroup? During Jamaica talks, the CDU/CSU were talking about shifting competences to the economy ministry in case the FDP got their hands on the finance ministry.

Highly doubt SPD would win in a new election with them polling at 17%

Cheers, edited!

That's a lot of ministries for the SPD.

I'm assuming that that's where the SPD pushed hard and they could afford to do so since the alternative would be new elections. If the talks would fail the SPD most likely wins but the CDU most likely loses. Both need to find something to sell to their voters and this could be what the SPD was shooting for.

Something like interior for the CSU doesn't come cheap either.

They need total return of all arrivals who have come since 2015, absolutely zero family reunification and immediate deportation of all foreign criminals. Also, strip any dual citizen who has committed a serious crime in Germany of German citizenship and send him back to his other country - I think they do that in the UK now and it’s an excellent idea.

Nice dick swaying and armchair coaching.

Either a minority Govermenment of CDU/CSU (unlikely) or new elections (more likely)

Everything could happen.

Personal impression:

A lot of people didn't like how the FDP coalition talks went.

A lot of people didn't like that there were coalition talks between SPD/CDU in the first place.

A lot of people might like an SPD that stands firmly against a CDU/SPD coalition.

Could end up with a left-centric majority, could end up with a right-centric majority, could end in exactly the same situation.

Hard to predict. We're Germans, we'll find a reason to be annoyed I'm sure.

His basic stance is expecting all countries to work together when a consensus within the union exists and not only if it's convenient and in a countries self-interest.

Unless you're referring to something else that I'm not aware of calling that a reason to "brace for war" seems a bit over the top.

They already agreed to more surveillance cameras and to more internet surveillance. They want to be able to read messengers like they can read SMS. Since nowadays these messengers use end-to-end encryption we'll get more Bundestrojaners. Because we need the Bundestrojaner SPD also didn't get their wish for a rule that forces German authorities to report vulnerabilities they discover to the software/device manufacturers.

And with CSU in the interior ministry we're one terror attack away from detention until you hand over your passwords and unlock your devices.

But at least they're tough on migrants. lol

Exactly, just like Agenda 2010 was good and maybe even required in the long run for Germany, it was pretty hard on a large part of SPD voters.

The CDU is still reaping the benefits of it, without changing the parts then went too far and would have required alterations.

I don't want to talk about that. =(

I'd say no.

In that regard they are comparable to "The Left" - just on the other side of the political spectrum. And so far the Left is still not really considered for coalitions on a federal level - even after ~28 years since re-unification. Though some talked about the possibility last year had the SPD gotten more votes.

The Green party for example also took 28 years from foundation in 1980 to their first (and only) government coalition in 1998.

Should the AfD not collapse (which I think is still quite a possibility due to all their internal issues) they would have to move more towards the political center over the coming years. In 15 years or so you might see them in the first governing coalition on a state level... and on a federal level maybe in 20-30 years.

Why? He is speaking the truth there

Will not both the CDU / CSU and the SPD voters feel deceived if such a coalition is formed?

Here's what I don't get: if they are able to bring an end to austerity and creste eurozone reform why would they still get decimated in the next elections? Or are these not really big concerns for SPD voters?

A strong Europe benefits every EU member.

It's against the law, killing yourself, while also against the law in Germany, is possible during a "vacation" to other countries.

If death would be outlawed, i bet we Germans would be the most active in upholding the law. Wörk, wörk, wörk to create an immortality potion.

Sorry but that won't work, it would be aginst the Grundgesetz.

Minority Government.Would be a first for us.Still, it would require the CDU actually going into compromise and trading for Votes, rather than just telling the SPD how to Vote and do whatever they like.

Edit: New Elections also possible, but dreaded.

I never claimed that it was the only factor. Should I also bring up a random comparison such as the US, which has a similar tough on crime stance and has higher crime than most of western Europe. (Sorry for what is basically the /sub/europe equivalent of a Godwin.) Internationally there just tends to be a correlation between lower crime rates and a rehabilitation-focused justice system, and this is also the conclusion of most studies on the topic. A quick google on the subject will provide more than enough examples. I'm not saying pedos and terrorists just need a hug. Removing dangerous people from society should remain priority. But being tough on crime usually implies punishing drug users instead of helping the addicted ones, not treating the mentally ill but just locking them up, and forcing a large numbers of people behind bars only to have them radicalize, join gangs and get involved with other criminals. Then when they get free they don't fit into society and everybody acts suprised.