Democrat Margaret Good Flips Seat in Florida, The 36th Democratic Flip Since Trump's Inauguration

Democrat Margaret Good Flips Seat in Florida, The 36th Democratic Flip Since Trump's Inauguration

She was running against a strong Republican candidate and turnout was high all around. Good's victory is big news for Democrats in Florida.

This past weekend, former Trump campaign manager Corey Lewandowski rallied supporters on behalf of Buchanan, alongside former deputy campaign manager David Bossie. Voters at the event reportedly broke out into a “lock her up” chant.

Oh my god that's beyond pathetic. These guys have only ever had one shtick and they don't know what else to do now that it's over.

Trump +5/Romney +3 district (Trump 51-46, Romney 51-48).

Tonight, the Dem won comfortably by 7%—a 12% swing from 2016, despite major Republican investment in holding the seat ($1 million raised, campaign rally with former Trump campaign manager Corey Lewandowski).

Significant R to D crossover vote based on the turnout pattern.

This is @GoodForFlorida and for America.

turnout was high all around

This is the key for a Democrat victory. If only more people voted.

Holy hell -- her Republican opponent raised a million dollars for a state house seat. That's an obscene amount of money for such a minor office, as far as state government goes. This is a much bigger deal based on the money alone.

Edit: I gotta reel this in a bit as I can't confirm that million-dollar reference on my own. I was sourcing a Daily Beast columnist but cannot find this information elsewhere. https://twitter.com/TheRickWilson/status/963572017441144833

Latest data I found has Good with a fundraising edge in cash donations:

Good -- $484,373

Buchanan -- $353,320

https://www.yourobserver.com/article/house-district-72-special-election-fundraising

These totals don't reflect in-kind contributions or outside money from PACs which undoubtedly contributed to Wilson's figure. I don't know those and would welcome anyone with better data to chime in on how the money race actually panned out.

They're a one hit wonder that keeps playing their greatest hit, because the other songs on the album are crap.

A democrat just won a:

Special Election

In Florida

State Level

Lower House

In Sarasota (the most established GOP moneyed area)

Woo hoo! One of the Trumpiest parts of Florida!

https://twitter.com/TheRickWilson/status/963571265469640705

In general that's true but one of the reasons we've seen shifts in special elections in deep red districts is because of ultra low turnout.

If the Democrats are incredibly energized in a district that voted for Trump by 30 points and the Republicans are apathetic it can be possible for the Democrats to flip a seat in a low turnout race even though in a midterm or presidential election they would have little hope. The fact that turnout was very high in a district Trump won suggests that Good's victory wasn't simply due to Democratic energy and low turnout but rather to winning swing voters. There was higher Republican turnout than Democratic turnout in the early vote and yet Good won the early vote. This means that Republicans voted for her which makes her victory arguably a bigger deal than some of the other Democratic flips in deep red areas.

It's so good to hear about GOP donors wasting millions of dollars. Couldn't've happened to a shittier party.

Good. Don't let up. This needs to happen everywhere.

Just shows how fucking dumb the Republicans who still support Trump are. Parroting empty campaign slogans, a year after it should have become clear Trump will never come through on his 'promises'.

As a young, Sarasota democrat, I feel very very proud of my fellow voters, and I can't wait to see how she performs.

I'm almost certain that we are watching a trainwreck in the makings. This "blue wave" is going to come after all the damage donald douche and friends do to the economy and the country.

2018 and 2020 are going to be dems cleaning up after these R's, and 2-6 years of evil Fox and friends blaming the dems for everything that is being done right now.

And by 2022/2024 rinse and repeat.

Something needs to change. "Citizens United" needs to go.

And iTunes forced everyone to download it

For every race that donor pipeline drains resources into, that's less cash flowing into the November races, less cash to fight off Democrats aiming to retake the House and Senate in Washington.

It's a drop in the bucket. With the kochs promising $400m they can effectively throw that much or more at every election.

Very notably, Bill Nelson, the 2018 FL senator up for reelection, won this district by almost the same margin as Margaret Good in an election year that mildly favors Dems and with Obama on top of the ticket.

Despite the amount of money, national attention, and strength of Buchanan, this is a very worrying sign for Republican in a cascade of signs pointing toward a Democratic wave.

Double digit win states must be worrying. AZ, I’m looking at you.

Exactly this. Once we (Dems) take back a chamber, and state governments, we need to push election finance reform and progressive voting rights. We need to push HARD from grassroots for this as soon as possible.

Finally the Democrats have come back to Florida house district 72!

You haven't heard?

Muller is actually investigating Obama and Clinton, its why he's gotten 4 of Trump's wet nurses!

Fuck U2, I was lukewarm on them until Apple force installed that album.

True. But money spent doesn't necessarily translate into votes. People appear to be fired up.

But they did it! Hillary didn’t win this seat!

We need every house seat we can get in Florida and the Governor's office. We've been under the Republican thumb too long.

Yup. It's not about draining their pockets (which is laughable considering how much that recent tax bill just made them)

It's building such a strong wave that the money advantage doesn't help them like it would in tighter election years.

Even more embarrassing is that James Buchanan, the Republican opponent, is the son of Congressman Vern Buchanan; name recognition and national funding alone + Rick Scott's endorsement was not enough to bring over the edge.

Republicans: "Hey, everyone, look! The tide's gone almost all the way out! Let's double down and walk way out into the bay!"

Which is exactly why Republicans fight tooth and nail to take away voting rights for as many people as possible

I’m not an expert, but how is there any way a republican wins in Arizona without completely repudiating Trump? Between DACA, the anti-immigration speeches, and general racism, I don’t see a way a state with a major Hispanic population can vote for someone who supports him.

Even with Generic Congressional Ballot of Democrats in the +6-+7 range, they are still winning districts Trump won by a healthy margin.

Don't worry, some Republicans have a plan on to how to stop this.

https://www.thenation.com/article/scott-walker-is-literally-preventing-wisconsinites-from-voting/

Yeah, it's hard to overstate the importance of the Buchanan name recognition in the area. I am a Sarasota voter living overseas and I sent in my ballot weeks ago.

This election was a first - James Buchanan's campaign actually sent out leaflets to registered voters overseas. I actually received one at my home in the UK. Not even presidential campaigns have sent literature overseas, but I got one for this house election. It didn't matter as I was never going to vote for him, so tonight is a really nice night.

In the Upside Down they have Aripio...so who knows anything anymore.

Don't. Don't stop worrying even a smidge until after November's results.

That is the rally cry of fascism. "Lock her up!" May soon become the chant of anyone who disagrees with Trump.

Just an FYI.

I’ve been voting in the district this election took place in for 30 years.

Today was the first time I’ve ever been asked for ID.

It's your 🍰-day gift!

They're called Geniuses.

He was electable in Maricopa County, until last election when he was replaced by a Democrat. Statewide Arpaio is very unpopular.

From one story I read:

“On Monday, 11,965 registered Republicans voted early (either in-person or vote-by-mail) compared to 11,798 Democrats — for a turnout already well over 22 percent.”

...

“Among early returns, Good bettered Buchanan 55 to 43 percent with vote-by-mail and early in-person voting.”

That represents nearly two thirds of the total vote and it shows a lot of Republicans voting for the Democrat.

The swing is heavier if you compare the HD 2016 -> HD 2018 results

And you couldn't fucking get rid of it. I had that thing on my playlist until the phone broke.

Repubs know this. That's why they're trying their best to either stifle the Russia hacking investigation, impose voter ID laws, and gerrymander the shit out of every state (not that Dems are innocent, as in Maryland, but its overwhelmingly a GOP thing).

Looks like the Florida GOP just lost their super majority in the state house. Hopefully this result moderates the Republicans in HRC districts but I wouldn't hold my breath on that.

that's the thing -- if more people turned up to vote, democrats would sweep everything. GOP policy is incredibly unpopular

The seat opened up last year when Republican Alex Miller resigned from the legislature citing her family and business as reasons. During the 2016 presidential election, President Trump won the district by just five points. But, overall, Republicans outnumber Democrats in the district by some 13,000 voters.

Good's final margin was nearly 8 percentage points and over 3,000 votes.

Wow, Republicans should be worried.

There was some discussion that the blue wave wasn't really going to hit Florida and the Florida Democratic Party was too incompetent to flip red areas blue. This proved that talking point wrong.

Tbh we should never stop worrying. Ever. Each election counts

Edit 2: Looking at actual numbers turnout is definitely down compared to 2014 (by 32%) and 2016 (by 51%), but how this compares to typical special election turnout I don't know. Either way, seems like good reason to doubt my theorizing below.

I'm not sure I agree with that (though there are stats that could settle this that I admittedly haven't looked up). If Rs generally have a higher percentage turnout than Ds, they have fewer previously-non-voting party members who can show up when turnout increases.

E.g. if a district is 50/50 R/D, and an election gets 40% turnout and the R wins 60/40, then that means 48% of all Rs voted whereas only 32% of all Ds voted. When turnout increases, absent any other effects you'd expect the new voters to be split 57/43 in favor of the Ds, based on the split of non-voters in the previous election.

Edit: Quickly addressing the major points raised in response: (1) I'm not concerned with which party someone is registered with, I'm concerned with who they voted for - actions matter, words/registration don't. If someone is registered as an R but votes for a D, then they're a D for purposes of this election. You can only call yourself something for so long if your actions don't follow the words. (2) Yes there are certainly apathetic voters or independents who have come out and voted this time around whereas previously they didn't, but see point (1); if you call yourself an I or nothing at all but still vote R/D, then you're an R/D for purposes of this election. (3) My math assumed that nobody switched their votes (essentially that the population hasn't changed), hence my "absent any other effects" line. If people are switching their votes then nothing can be gleaned about voter turnout (without looking at the readily available voting totals). My point was simply that generally speaking, I think that signs point to increased voter turnout rather than suppressed voter turnout, based simply on (a) the previous vote (b) the fact that Rs generally turn out more consistently than Ds in the average elections and (c) what the general population likely actually looks like.

Kind of hard to not to when the other option is a life in prison and the stigma for your family name being associated with the largest act of treason committed against the country since the Revolutionary War.

This keeps up we will definitely see more gop retirements in the near future.

And by 2022/2024 rinse and repeat.

Oh no. I'm hoping we learn.

One of my professors talked today about Citizens United. Crowd of young voters. Glad to see people being informed.

James Buchanan's campaign actually sent out leaflets to registered voters overseas

Damn, for a state house seat. That's some serious fuck you money, and it was all for naught.

Delicious.

This is what I've been saying. Two steps forward, three steps back. Every democratic president tries to clean up his republican predecessor's mess, then republicans retake power and take credit for the success. Then they steer the plane back into a nosedive just in time for the democrats to wrench control of the wheel away, with the republicans turning to the passengers and screaming "Look, the democrats are crashing the plane!"

Each time the democrats right the plane, the republicans steer it into a nosedive, and it gets lower every time.

I usually lurk a lot, but this was sickening enough for me to comment. Blatant abuse of power, and purely un-democratic and, in my opinion, un-American.

Can any Wisconsinites comment on what the mood is about this?

And keeping that civic advantage so money won’t ever help them like it did, again. Until we can vote in people to do something about our campaign finance laws.

I voted early the other day and there was quite a line.. a buzz in the air... just felt right

Florida has a governor's election this year as well. A GOP super majority would essentially cut off a Dem governor at the knees.

May we learn from these examples and flip seats coast to coast. I'm doing my part for WA05 but there is still way too much apathy.

Maybe as the opportunities to vote come along people will rise to meet the challenge. But, I don't feel like leaving a damn thing to chance at this point.

Lot of retired angry boomers down there in Arizona.

Honestly, I doubt they even know. At this point it's just become a mindless chant that makes them feel comfortable.

I wonder how many seats have flipped in favor of the GOP on the same time frame.

Edit: oh fuck off. it was an honest question people.

You could remove it, you just have to find a homeless guy to do it for you.

For the millions.... AND MILLIONS of the Democrats fans.

Do not get complacent. We must turn out and vote in Nov as if none of this has happened.

Yeah, the big difference between Good's race and Ossoff's is that, in GA-06, the Democrats had an expensive loss in a seat they never should have been competitive for, and in today's race, the Republicans had an expensive loss in a seat they should have won easily. Tells you right away which party is on the offensive.

Republicans actually cast more votes than Democrats in early voting and absentee voting and yet Good won the early votes. Republicans turned out but they didn't vote for Buchanan in the numbers he needed. Having a libertarian on the ballot probably didn't help the GOP either.

This is fucking HUGE. The GOP was all in to keep this seat. Corey Lewandowski put out a panic call and gave a warning to Florida Republicans:

James Buchanan was their candidate in a fast-approaching special state House election and Democrats could beat him.

Cory was right. Since Nov 2016 in special elections the number of flipped seats it's

Dems: 36 to 4.

Once a person becomes disillusioned, they take it upon themselves to stay educated. Spend all of the money you want on attack ads and billboards, it won't do them any damn good to the people who now know a Republican monster when they see one.

I didn't check. That would be the better comparison. Even better would be the average of the last two FL House elections compared to the average district. Then you could do something like a PVI.

Still, this is a Trump stronghold rejecting a pedigreed Republican who campaigned at a MAGA rally with Lewandowski.

That’s Good.

Yeah head of the Michigan RNC just resigned in disgust of Trump

Good for her, very proud! But just a strong reminder to any liberals:

We CANNOT let up our momentum. That's what the GOP and Trump are counting on, is that we'll just be complacent and bored and not go out.

Whereas I hope we'll surprise them and do just the opposite. Remember, the smaller elections actually benefit you more than the large ones, because people like your city council, state reps, senators, etc actually pass legislation that affects your life day-to-day.

"The cost of freedom is eternal vigilance."

And even then, it's still not over. It's never over. Kick them out and keep them out.

People see a tax deal got done, unemployment is low, food is on their table, lots of stories about jobs coming back to America on the conservative outlets. Your average guy in po-dunk Kentucky isn’t paying attention to the daily White House saga or Russian election meddling/Mueller/etc. because Fox News isn’t telling them it’s a big deal. And there’s a good chance they listen to Rush or some other Republican outlet on the radio and their local broadcasters are probably Sinclair owned. The whole structure is built to try and manipulate the average person.

Said another way if you hated Trump before the election, you still hate him. His approval numbers are basically based on the whims of his average voter and they generally will focus on what’s in front of them.

Since Trump's election, 4.

The Republicans needed Buchanan to win to maintain their super majority in the state house. Now that Good was elected it's so long super majority.

We've got fundamentalists here afraid of gays and baby killers, gun owners afraid liberals will take away their weapons, and tons of folks afraid of the Mexicans. While there are pockets of progressives, don't underestimate the power of fear.

Yeah, it's been tightening the past month or so but the fact there's still these significant %shifts towards Democrats makes me a lot less worried about it.

No, they can't. There are more than 400 US House races. There are many, many thousands of state legislative seats up.

Plus, US Senate and Gov races are the most expensive of all.

Don’t get me wrong, this is great, but Margaret Good had good name recognition well before she was a candidate and she went gangbusters on the fundraising trail. FDP is still wildly incompetent.

We have 964 more elected seats to win back before we’re even back to where we were in 2008. And we shouldn’t stop there.

Gerrymandering and vote suppression are the seawalls holding back the blue wave.

I am always happy to see larger numbers of people voting for people instead of the letter after their name.

Even after Donnie told them that that only "played well" before the election and "now, we're not so into that."

They can't even hear words out of their daddy's mouth if he's contradicting himself.

And all records of that vote have been destroyed in Georgia... that’s a big ducking deal that needs repeated any time Ossof is brought up. He lost a tight race at the last hour to the former sec of State in charge of voting- and all the records were destroyed after a court order was issued to retain them.

Also keep in mind that this is Florida. Unless they're in a super safe district, elections are never really decisive in Florida, and yet this one was wrapped up thirty minutes after polls closed.

Now if only we can keep up this civil engagement after 2020...

We still have a long way to go to get our country back. We need everyone on board doing what they can!

https://flippable.org/get-smart/special-elections/

/sub/bluemidterm2018

/sub/political_revolution

/sub/justicedemocrats

Lock who up?

The person running as a Democrat??

Thanks to the beautiful tax cut, GOP donors have billions in extra cash they can give the GOP candidates.

Don’t tell them.

Time to make Republicans go the way of the Know Nothing Party.

One in Louisiana where no one filed to run as a Dem. (It had become a very red district, but still...)

One in NJ during the November election.

One in Massachusetts where a left-wing independent split the vote in a swingy district.

And one in Mississippi - not sure what happened there.

It's not over until they lose the majority. It's important to remember that.

Suburban women abandoning the GOP in droves.